shueman

Libra
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Born To Drive...
     
Alta Loma CA
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Posted: Feb. 17 2005,5:42 am |
Post # 10 |
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One more update...Powell could go up 50' by mid-Summer...!!
The Colorado River Basin has now completed 5 consecutive years of severe drought. In the summer of 1999 Lake Powell was essentially full, with reservoir storage at 97 percent of capacity. Since that time, inflow volumes have been below average for 5 consecutive water years. Total unregulated inflow to Lake Powell in water year 2004 was only 51 percent of average. Unregulated inflow in water years 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 was 62, 59, 25, and 51 percent of average, respectively. Inflow in water year 2002 was the lowest ever observed since the completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963.
Hydrologic conditions have improved in the past 5 months in the Colorado River Basin. Since September 2004, precipitation in the basin has been above average. The Colorado River Basin received extensive precipitation during a two week period which extended from December 28, 2004 through January 12, 2005. Draft data shows that precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin was nearly 200 percent of average in January, with almost all of this moisture occurring in the first 12 days of the month. Snowpack in the basin above Lake Powell is currently 121 percent of average (as of February 7, 2005).
Inflow, as a percentage of average, has been increasing since last summer in response to the precipitation events last fall and this winter. November 2004 was the first month with above average inflow to Lake Powell since September 1999. Unregulated inflow in January was 519,000 acre-feet, or 128 percent of average.
As of February 6, 2005, the elevation of Lake Powell is 3,561.3 feet (138.7 feet from full pool). Current storage is 8.42 million acre-feet (35 percent of live capacity).
The National Weather Service (in their February final forecast) is forecasting 9.0 million acre-feet of unregulated inflow to Lake Powell this April through July. This is 113.5 percent of average.
The water surface elevation of Lake Powell is projected to gradually decline until early-April 2005. Current projections show the lake decreasing to an elevation of about 3,556 feet by early April. The elevation of Lake Powell is projected to increase from April through mid-July of 2005. Current projections (using the February final forecast) show Lake Powell reaching a peak in July 2005 of about 3,606 feet.
It should be noted, however, there is uncertainty with these projections. Weather conditions for the remainder of the winter and this spring will ultimately determine how much runoff there will be to Lake Powell in 2005.
Updated February 7, 2005 Tom Ryan
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